Impact of shale gas development on water resources: A case study in Northern Poland

Shale gas is currently being explored in Europe as an alternative energy source to conventional oil and gas. There is, however, increasing concern about the potential environmental impacts of shale gas extraction by hydraulic fracturing (fracking). In this study we focussed on the potential impacts on regional water resources within the Baltic Basin in Poland, both in terms of quantity and quality. The future development of the shale play was modelled for the timeperiod 2015-2030 using the LUISA modelling framework. We formulated 2 scenarios which took into account the large range in technology and resource requirements, as well as 2 additional scenarios based on the current legislation and the potential restrictions which could be put in place. According to these scenarios, between 0.03 and 0.86% of the total water withdrawals for all sectors could be attributed to shale gas exploitation within the study area. A screening-level assessment of the potential impact of the chemicals commonly used in fracking was carried out and showed that due to their wide range of physicochemical properties, these chemicals may pose additional pressure on freshwater ecosystems. The legislation put in place also influenced the resulting environmental impacts of shale gas extraction. Especially important are the protection of vulnerable ground and surface water resources and the promotion of more water-efficient technologies.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

2017 User Workshop of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service – Summary Report

This report summarises the User Workshop of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service (EMS) – Mapping component which was held on 20-21 June 2017 at the Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra, Italy. The User Workshop is the annual forum at which users, service providers, the Commission and other stakeholders exchange views and experiences of the Copernicus EMS - Mapping component. It was attended by 50 participants from across Europe, of whom eighteen were users of this service component. The focus of the User Workshop was on the two on-demand Mapping services - i.e. “Rapid Mapping” and “Risk and Recovery Mapping” - which provide geo-spatial information in support to all phases of disaster management. The information is mainly derived from satellite imagery and complemented by available ancillary data. During the first day of the Workshop, the focus was on providing insights in the technical and scientific capacity of the “Risk & Recovery” Mapping service, which delivers maps and analysis in support of disaster risk reduction, preparedness and prevention, recovery and reconstruction. The aim of this part of the Workshop was to increase awareness of this service module, which is less known than the “Rapid Mapping” service - the “24/7” (i.e. always on) service supporting emergency response operations. Users were invited to present their experience with both service modules, while a live demo of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS), was made, in order to show the potential of these platforms in the context of the fast provision of airborne imagery in an emergency situation. The second day of the Workshop addressed the evolution of Copernicus EMS - Mapping. Two Horizon 2020 projects were introduced and discussed: while iREACT (http://www.i-react.eu/) looks at exploiting advanced cyber technologies for disaster management, E2mC (https://www.e2mc-project.eu/) focuses on exploiting social data and crowdsourcing for use in Rapid Mapping. Other evolution-related topics addressed were links with the two Copernicus EMS Early Warning Systems (i.e. the European Flood Awareness System and the European Forest Fire Information System), product dissemination and potential new products. All topics were further discussed in groups. As every year, the discussions at the User Workshop are summarised and processed by the JRC, with a view to guiding the overall evolution of the service. The workshop agenda and presentations are available at: http://emergency.copernicus.eu/mapping/ems/copernicus-ems-mapping-user-workshop-2017JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Managemen

An assessment of dedicated energy crops in Europe under the EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013. Application of the LUISA modelling platform - Updated Configuration 2014

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of dedicated energy crops (ENCR) performed with the LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform across Europe between 2020 and 2050. LUISA is configured in compliance with the “EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends until 2050” document in order to ensure that the EU meet its climate and energy targets up to 2050 (EU Reference Scenario 2013, updated LUISA configuration 2014). The spatial modelling of ENCR in LUISA requires determining a set of elements such as the land demand, availability and suitability of the land, and other land categories for the ENCR cultivation. Thus, the assessment is focused on the following steps: 1) Land accounts and dominant land use/cover flows for the expansion of energy crops at European scale, 2) A suitability analysis of the land dedicated to these crops based on suitability maps, 3) Recuperation of degraded and contaminated lands for energy purpose, 4) A detailed regional analysis per each Member State (factsheets) with a summary of the main important findings, and 5) Evaluation of energy crops’ impacts on a selection of environmental indicators (provision of ecosystem services). In LUISA, the displacement and cultivation of crops solely dedicated to energy production takes place on a specific land-use class named ‘energy crop’ (ENCR), which competes in particular with the demand for others land-uses, such as for food, feed and forest. The amount of ENCR reaches about 13,549 kha in 2050 that represents, on average, 3.6% of Europe’s total available land. This expansion occurs mainly at expenses of land for food and feed (90%). Forest and natural land (9% and 1%,) represent respectively the second and third land flows towards ENCR among total land-use changes (with these flows represented respectively 9 and 1% of all land use changes). As result of this land competition, there is an increasing shift of food and feed crops towards low quality land, due not only to the ENCR expansion but also to the growth of residential and economic-driven land uses. It should also be noted that intensive agriculture practices for ENCR production might have some negative impacts on soil, water, biodiversity, amongst others. Owing to this potential impacts, the analysis performed on the supply of a set of ecosystem services identifies some services more sensitive than others to ENCR growth. In particular, pollination potential, habitat quality for birds and also the Green-Infrastructure network are expected to decrease due to ENCR growth, while patterns for recreational opportunities and water retention services are less evident.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Spatially-resolved Assessment of Land and Water Use Scenarios for Shale Gas Development: Poland and Germany

The analysis presented in this report focuses specifically on two issues of potential concern with respect to shale gas development in EU member states using hydraulic fracturing technologies: pressure on freshwater resources, and land use competition. Potential alternative technologies, such as “dry fracking”, are not considered, because they are still at the research and development stage. We reviewed available literature in order to identify important variables that may influence the land and water requirements associated with shale gas development. We further derived a range of representative values spanning worst-, average- and best-case scenarios for each variable. We then coupled specific technology scenarios (incorporating these variables) regarding water and land use requirements for shale gas development from 2013-2028 with spatially-resolved water and land availability/demand modeling tools (i.e. using the European Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP)). Scenario analyses (intended to represent worst-, average- and best-case assumptions) were subsequently implemented that incorporate a subset of the identified variables for shale gas development in the Lower Paleozoic Baltic-Podlasie-Lublin basin in Poland and for Germany as a whole from 2013-2028. In addition, we undertook a screening-level risk assessment of potential human and ecosystem health impacts attributable to accidental or operational release of chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing of shale formations, as well as the average gaseous emissions (per active well) associated with shale gas development activities that might be anticipated within a shale play. Finally, we developed a qualitative discussion of necessary considerations to support future air quality impact assessments for shale gas development activities.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

European cities: territorial analysis of characteristics and trends - An application of the LUISA Modelling Platform (EU Reference Scenario 2013 - Updated Configuration 2014)

Cities and towns are at the core of the European economy but they are often also the places where problems related to the quality of life of citizens such as unemployment, segregation and poverty are most evident. To curtail the negative impacts and foster the positive effects of ongoing urban processes in Europe, policies have to be adjusted and harmonised to accommodate future urbanization trends. Such an analysis of the evolution of European cities requires the evaluation of impacts of continent-wide drivers and, at the same time, assessment of the effect of national and local strategies. As a contribution to this analysis of the current and future evolution of European territories (countries, macro-regions, regions or urban areas), the Directorate-General Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) of the European Commission (EC) has developed the Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) Modelling Platform. Based on the concept of ‘dynamic land functions’, LUISA has adopted a novel approach towards activity-based modelling and endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. This report illustrates how European cities could potentially evolve over the time period 2010-2050, according to the reference configuration of the LUISA modelling platform, on the basis of a collection of spatial indicators covering several thematic fields. These spatial indicators aim to improve our understanding of urbanization and urban development processes in Europe; explore territorial dimensions of projected demographic and economic changes, and finally examine some key challenges that urban areas are or may be exposed to. Some of the key findings of this report are given below: - The proportion of the population living in cities, towns and suburbs is higher in the EU than in the rest of the world. According to the LUISA forecasts, the urban proportion will continue to increase up to 2030; subsequently slow down, and reach a relatively steady state by 2050. - In 2010, 65% of the EU population were living in Functional Urban Areas (FUA, the city and its commuting zone). This figure is expected to reach 70% by 2050. The total EU-28 population is expected to grow by 4.6%. Most of this population growth will occur particularly in FUA which will grow by an average 14%. - As of 2010, the amount of artificial areas per inhabitant in the EU-28 was estimated as 498 m2: it becomes 539 m2 in 2050 with an 8% increase. Although there is not a unique spatial pattern, land take tends to start peak at 5 km distance from the city centre. This is due to the fact that land is often less available for development within city centres and that the majority of land take therefore will occur firstly in the suburbs and then in rural areas. - By 2050, potential accessibility – as measure of economic opportunities - will be higher in the urban areas of north-western Europe, while it will not improve in lagging European regions. Urban form has a considerable impact on average travelled distances and thus potentially on the energy dependence of transport. - Green infrastructure is mainly located at the periphery of urban areas. Its share per person is generally low or very low in most of the European cities, with few exceptions. Green infrastructure per capita in FUA shows a general trend towards a decrease across the EU-28 (by approximately 13%) between 2010 and 2050. - Larger cities tend to have higher average flood risk, especially due to the higher sensitivity in terms of potential human and physical losses. The analysis herein presented is part of a wider initiative of DG JRC and DG REGIO aiming to improve the management of knowledge and sharing of information related to territorial policies, such as those concerning urban development. In this framework, the work will be further developed, covering the following main elements: - Development of the European Urban Data Platform, providing a single access point for data and indicators on the status and trends of European urban areas; - Updates of the LUISA configuration, to account for new socio-economic projections; - Support to the development of the EU Urban Agenda and related initiatives; - Provision of evidence-based support for the evaluation of territorial policies in particular to proof the role of cities in the implementation of EU priorities.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

LUISA Dynamic Land Functions: Catalogue of Indicators – Release I: EU Reference Scenario 2013 LUISA Platform - Updated Configuration 2014

The concept of ‘dynamic land function’ is a new notion for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. A land function can be societal (e.g. provision of housing, leisure and recreation), economic (e.g. provision of production factors - employment, investments, energy – or provision of manufacturing products and services – food, fuels, consumer goods, etc.) or environmental (e.g. supply of ecosystem services). Land functions are temporally and spatially dynamic, and are constrained and driven by natural, socio-economic, and techno-economic processes. Based on the concept of ‘land function’ and beyond a traditional land use model, the Land-Use based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. The ultimate product of LUISA is a set of territorial indicators that can be grouped and combined according to the ‘land function’ of interest and/or to the sector under assessment. The herein presented indicators measure the provision of land functions in the period 2010-2050, according to the EU Reference Scenario (LUISA, updated configuration 2014), consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including the 2020 renewable energy targets). The indicators are aggregated by Member States and Regions (Administrative Units NUTS-2) and can be employed as benchmark to monitor sectorial and territorial evolutions of alternative scenarios (e.g. to simulate policy options or specific measures), and for future updates of the reference scenario, to capture policy impacts (for example when changing energy targets) and their territorial effects. This catalogue aims to provide the description of the land functions and the list of related indicators and an indicator factsheet (metadata). 30 indicators, out of the more than 50 currently produced by LUISA, are included in the first release of the catalogue. The catalogue is periodically up-dated, following the updates of the configurations of the LUISA modelling platform and the definition, computation and validation of new indicators. Indicators and basic spatial layers used for the simulations will be made available in the frame of the framework for the management of knowledge and dissemination of information being set up by the Pilot Knowledge Centre on Territorial Policies.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Scenarios for shale gas development and their related land use impacts in the Baltic Basin, Northern Poland

Scenarios for potential shale gas development were modelled for the Baltic Basin in Northern Poland for the period 2015–2030 using the land allocation model EUCS100. The main aims were to assess the associated land use requirements, conflicts with existing land use, and the influence of legislation on the environmental impact. The factors involved in estimating the suitability for placement of shale gas well pads were analysed, as well as the potential land and water requirements to define 2 technology-based scenarios, representing the highest and lowest potential environmental impact. 2 different legislative frameworks (current and restrictive) were also assessed, to give 4 combined scenarios altogether. Land consumption and allocation patterns of well pads varied substantially according to the modelled scenario. Potential landscape fragmentation and conflicts with other land users depended mainly on development rate, well pad density, existing land-use patterns, and geology. Highly complex landscapes presented numerous barriers to drilling activities, restricting the potential development patterns. The land used for shale gas development could represent a significant percentage of overall land take within the shale play. The adoption of appropriate legislation, especially the protection of natural areas and water resources, is therefore essential to minimise the related environmental impact.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

The Water Retention Index: Using land use planning to manage water resources in Europe

Appropriate land management can be an effective approach to improving water quantity regulation. There is, however, a need to identify both where measures are most needed and where they may be most effective. The water retention index (WRI) was developed with this goal in mind. The WRI is a composite indicator which takes into account parameters reflecting potential water retention in vegetation, water bodies, soil and underlying aquifers, as well as the influence of slope and artificially sealed areas. Three land management scenarios were simulated up to 2030 using the LUISA modeling platform: increasing grassland in upstream areas as well as afforestation in both upstream areas and riparian zones. The WRI was computed for all scenarios as well as a comparative “business‐as‐usual” baseline scenario. All scenarios showed an overall improvement of the index as compared to this baseline, with afforestation in upstream areas having the greatest effect. The WRI can provide useful insights into the current capacity of a landscape to regulate water as well as the effectiveness of possible remediation strategies applied at the European scale.JRC.B.3-Territorial Developmen

Evaluation of the status of natural resources in the updated Reference Configuration 2014 of the LUISA modelling platform Methodological framework and preliminary considerations

The impacts of current and planned policy initiatives can be simulated by using modelling tools and indicators, which help determine the effectiveness of policies in attaining targets. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform was configured to assess the spatial impact of the “EU Energy Reference scenario 2013” on the efficient use of natural resources in the EU-28 in a short time period (2010-2020) and in a long term vision (2010-2050). A set of Resource Efficiency (RE) indicators were computed to measure [1] the progress towards the efficient use of land and water as a resource and [2] the performance on the actions and milestones on natural capital and ecosystems proposed in the RE roadmap, in particular biodiversity, safeguarding clean air, and land and soils. The modelling results show that by 2050: [1] the share of built-up area in the EU-28 will increase by 1%; [2] the EU-28 will use the land less efficiently; [3] the water productivity is expected to increase on average 8%; [4] the landscape fragmentation in the EU-28 will show no significant changes [5] and the PM10 concentrations in urban air and population exposed will remain constant.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Mapping and Assessment of Ecosystems and their Services: Trends in ecosystems and ecosystem services in the European Union between 2000 and 2010

This report presents an analysis of the trends in the spatial extent of ecosystems and in the supply and use of ecosystem services at the European scale between 2000 and 2010. In the EU urban land and forests increased while cropland, grassland and heathland decreased. Other ecosystem types underwent smaller changes. The main trends in provisioning, regulating and maintenance, and cultural ecosystem services were assessed using a set of 30 indicators assorted according to the CICES classification. More crops for food, feed and energy were produced in the EU on less arable land. More organic food was grown. Textile crop production and the total number of grazing livestock decreased. Water use relative to water availability remained stable. Timber removals increased but so, too, did the total timber stock. There was an increase in net ecosystem productivity (growing biomass). Several regulating services, but in particular those which are related to the presence of trees, woodland or forests, increased slightly. This was the case for water retention, forest carbon potential, erosion control, and air quality regulation. Pollination potential and habitat quality showed a negative trend. There was a positive trend in the opportunity for citizens to have access to land with a high recreation potential.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen